Should Canada Change How It Forecasts Grain Shipping Costs?
Official title: Volume-Related Composite Price Index Consultation, 2025
Why This Matters
Grow grain? Ship grain? Buy products made from Canadian wheat? This index affects the cost of moving grain across Canada. When forecasts miss the mark, someone pays the difference—whether that's farmers, railways, or eventually consumers.
What Could Change
The Agency could revise how it calculates the VRCPI, which sets maximum grain shipping rates. Better forecasts would mean rates that more accurately reflect actual costs for labour, fuel, and materials. This affects the regulated maximum revenue railways can earn from grain transport.
Key Issues
- Are the current forecasting models for labour, fuel, and material costs effective?
- What changes could reduce the gap between forecasted and actual price changes?
- Is there a better alternative methodology for calculating the VRCPI?
How to Participate
- Review the VRCPI consultation paper to understand the current forecasting models and specific questions.
- Submit your responses to grain@otc-cta.gc.ca or by mail to the Agency Secretariat in Gatineau.
What Happened
The consultation received submissions from major stakeholders including CN Railway, CPKC Railway, the VRCPI Working Group (coalition of producers and WGEA), Dr. James Nolan from the University of Saskatchewan, and the Port of Churchill and Hudson Bay Railway. Initial submissions were received by August 29, 2025, and responses to those submissions were submitted by October 17, 2025. All public submissions have been posted online.